2021 Real Estate Market Report
Truckee/North Lake Tahoe Residential Properties – Single Family Homes and Condominiums
Activity January 2021
Residential Sales Summary 2020
Total Residential Sales:
The number of transactions has mellowed from the feverish activity we saw throughout the second half of 2020. For the first time in 7 months, we didn’t shatter the old record for number of monthly sales. However, we still had the largest number of January sales in the last 16 years. So, make no mistake . . . we’re still busy for the time of year, just not crazy busy like we were in summer and fall.
In all, 104 residences sold. That’s 17% more than the 89 sold in January 2020, and 32% above the 10 year average for January (79 sales).
Current Active Residential Inventory:
Active Listings:
Why has the number of transactions dropped since summer? Purely because of lack of supply. The record breaking sales in 2020 burned through the inventory of homes on the market. Even though there were 20% more new listings in 2020 than there were in 2019, active inventory started 2021 at record lows. In addition, the number of new listings in January was down 10% compared to January 2020. There is very little to choose from, and still very strong demand.
There are currently 144 residences actively for sale (69 single family homes and 75 condos), down from 366 (248 homes, 118 condos) at this time last year.
95 new listings hit the market in January 2021, compared to 105 in 2020.
Current Pending Sales: There are currently 172 residences in contract. Up from 129 at this time last year. There were 103 new contracts in January compared to 94 in the same month last year.
Current inventory represents about 1.5 months of supply, relative to the last 30 days of activity.
Coldwell Banker Ranks #1: Among all brokerages in North Lake Tahoe and Truckee, Coldwell Banker continues to rank #1 in total number of sales. For the previous 12 months, Coldwell Banker represented 12.5% of sales. This represents 19% more transactions than our next closest competitor (10.5% of sales).
Median and Average Sales Prices: These numbers are changing dramatically. For the period January through June 2020, the median sales price was $674,500 (up slightly from $669,000 in 2019) and the average sales price was $986,430 (up slightly from $975,296 in 2019). In the second half of 2020 we jumped to a median of $825,000 (up 22% compared to the first half of the year) and an average of $1,209,097 (up 23%). In January 2021, the median price was $874,000 (up 33% from January 2020) and the average price was $1,318,751 (up 27% from January 2020).
Sales Under $500,000: For the month, residences priced under $500,000 represented just over 14% of sales or 15 properties sold. For the same period in 2020, 27% of sales were in this range.
Mid-Range Market Sales $500,000 to $999,999: There were 49 sales between $500,000 and $999,999, representing 47% of total sales. For the same period in 2020, 49% of sales were in this price range.
Luxury Home Sales Over $1 Million: 40 properties sold over $1 million, representing 39% of total sales. In January 2020, just 25% of sales were over $1 million.
What’s Going On Looking Forward?
Sometimes dramatic jumps in pricing motivate people to sell their home. You know the conversation, “the neighbors just got how much for their house??!! Maybe we should think about selling!” In the second half of 2020 we saw some of this phenomenon as the number of listings surged through the normal summer listing season and well into the fall (when new listings typically drop off). Will that trend continue in 2021? Or will the already low inventory, dwindle further without a steady stream of new listings? We’ll have to wait and see.
The one thing we can say with confidence is demand is MUCH stronger than supply right now. 5, 10, even 15 offers is common when a new house comes on the market. Each sale in a neighborhood seems to set another high water mark for pricing. The number of transactions this year will hinge on supply, because the demand is there. Continued appreciation throughout the year seems like a safe bet.
Why are we seeing such extraordinary dynamics in our housing market?
The residential real estate market is solid around most of the country for one primary reason . . . right now, HOME is more important than ever. People are spending more time in their homes than they have before.
In Tahoe, we have a major amplifier to that. The profile of our typical buyer has evolved. People have always wanted to be in Tahoe, but that typically meant buying a vacation home (historically 80% of homes here have been non primary residents). People from the tech industry started to have the ability to move up here, permanently, as much as 20 years ago. In the last 10 years, high speed internet started to allow other professionals to make Tahoe and Truckee home. Even Doctors and Lawyers could consolidate their live meetings into a couple days a week in the Bay Area, and then work from home (in Tahoe) the other days, while keeping their family here full time. The Coronavirus has accelerated that evolution, as people across many industries have been forced to use technology to work from home, and realized they can do it productively. Also, the businesses themselves are now far more comfortable with employees working remotely. This has driven demand for homes in Tahoe to all new levels. People want to be here now . . . and, as long as Lake Tahoe and Truckee is more affordable than the Bay Area, that trend is not likely to change.
Note: Data in this report is based on information from the Tahoe Sierra Board of Realtors, MLS. Due to MLS reporting methods and allowable reporting policy, this data is only informational and may not be completely accurate. Therefore, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage does not guarantee the data's accuracy. Data maintained by the MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. CA-BRE License # 1908304