Coldwell Banker
2026 Q1 Real Estate Market Report
North Lake Tahoe -Truckee
Residential Properties – Single Family Homes and Condominiums
Residential Sales Summary
Here we go again! After a roller coaster of a Tahoe/Truckee real estate market in 2025, we are seeing some striking similarities in 2026. Like 2025, there has been a lot of reason for optimism in Q1 including a healthy number of winter transactions and solid indicators of buyer activity including online views/clicks, property showings, and visits to open houses. The market has seemed poised to takeoff. However, like 2025, a significant monkey wrench has been thrown into the mix. In 2025 it was tariffs, this year it's the war in Iran and the ensuing economic uncertainty. Activity has maintained so far during the conflict, but a bit of a "wait and see" tone has come up with many buyers. We are still battling for enough traction to break out of a relatively slow real estate cycle that is entering its 4th year.
Total Residential Sales:
There were 196 residential sales in Q1 2026, the highest number of Q1 sales in the last 4 years. It's a 6.5% increase over the 184 sales in Q1 2025. It puts us at 99% of the 5 year average and 85% of the 10 year average for the period. This continues a trend, going back to Q3 of 2025, of transaction numbers at the 5 year average. However, there is a dramatic difference between the 5 year and 10 year averages. In the last 4 years, we have never exceeded 200 residential transactions in Q1. In the 6 years prior, we were never below 225 transactions in Q1 (and peaked at 335 during the pandemic). This is a clear indicator that we have not come out of the down cycle, yet.
Digging into market segments, there are some highlights worth mentioning. Sales of residences over $5 million increased from 10 to 13. Condo sales increased by 12.3%, which is a welcome sign after tepid demand in the first half of 2025. A neighborhood that stands out is Northstar where 10 single family homes sold in Q1 2026 compared to just 4 in Q1 2025. Activity in general has been strong at the ski resorts, despite the dry winter that impacted the entire western United States.
Median and Average Sales Prices: Pricing continues to be a positive story in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee market. The median price of a residential sale in Q1 2026 came in at $1.123m, right at the median for the full years of both 2024 and 2025. The average sales price was $1.866 million, up from $1.760 million for the full year of 2025.
For single family homes the median for Q1 was $1.303m, down from Q1 last year, but up from $1.248m for the full year 2025. The average price came in at $2.223m which again was down from Q1 last year, but up from $1.996m for the full year of 2025. For condos the median price was $724k (up from $717k for full year 2025) and the average was $1.13m (up from $950k for full year 2025).
Prices continue to be at a very healthy premium from where they stood in 2019 (before the pandemic). For single family homes the Q1 median sales price is 75% higher compared to the full year of 2019 (from $744k to $1.303m). For condos the median sales price is 68% higher compared to 2019 (from $430k to $724k).
Active Residential Inventory:
Active Listings: As we start Q2 there are about 275 active listings. Supply dynamics changed significantly in 2025, particulary in Q2 when inventory approached prepandemic levels before pulling back in the 2nd half of the year. In Q1 2026 inventory levels tracked very close to Q1 2025. Inventory always jumps in Q2 in anticipation of the busy summer season. We are intrigued to see if it jumps to the same levels as Q2 2025 which were the highest since the pandemic (including a 30% increase in the number of listings compared to the same period in 2024). My hunch is that supply will come onto the market at a more steady pace throughout Q2 and Q3 rather than the front loaded rush we saw in Q2 2025.
We have hovered between 5 to 6 months of supply from Q3 2025 through Q1 2026. Historically 5 to 6 months of supply is considered a balanced market.
What’s Going On Looking Forward?
The market is not "hot" by any stretch of the imagination, but the solid momentum from the 2nd half of 2025 continues and gives us reason for optimism. I've used the phrase "healthy and strengthening" to describe the market and I think that is still the correct moniker. However, the war and current economic uncertainty put my previous prediction of a 5-10% increase in transactions in 2026 onto wobbly ground.
Sellers, keep in mind, this is still a much better time to be a seller than it was in 2019 (which seemed like a very healthy market at the time!). You can expect a similar time on market, but much higher sales prices!
Buyers, keep in mind, this is the most balanced market we have seen in the last 6 years. You now have the following things working in your favor:
- An inventory of homes to choose from.
- The ability to negotiate price.
- The ability to inspect a property and have normal contingencies.
- The ability to negotiate repairs.
- Tahoe real estate prices are still significantly cheaper than those seen in other major ski resort markets in the western United States (Park City, Vail, Aspen, Jackson Hole, etc)
- Yes, interest rates are higher than we got used to but are in the “normal” range historically speaking. We do not expect significant changes in interest rates in the foreseeable future. If/when they do start to drop, it will likely cause an increase in demand and increased prices. You are better off to buy the right home now, in a relatively balanced market, and refinance if rates drop.
Contact Me Today to Find Out More about the Opportunities Available in the market!
